India greenlights Amazon export model

Amazon just smashed through a $3 trillion market cap as AWS growth supercharged its capex plans to $220 billion. But the real game-changer is happening in India, where new rules mean Amazon and Flipkart can finally run inventory-based e-commerce models—but only for exports. This could catapult India’s $5 billion e-commerce exports toward a potential $350 billion by 2030, giving Amazon new leverage over its supply chain and helping MSMEs (small businesses) sidestep red tape. The twist: enforcement will be tough, and critics warn it could blur the line between exports and domestic sales.

Meanwhile, Amazon Business just hit a $60 billion run rate, signaling a shakeup in B2B procurement. As AI-powered agents start sourcing on autopilot, only suppliers with well-structured, machine-readable catalogs will stay visible. Smaller distributors risk getting squeezed as Amazon’s take rates rise and procurement teams start to demand Amazon-level service across the industry.

CEO Andy Jassy’s bullishness is hard to ignore—AWS posted its fastest growth in years and both its AI software and chip units now top $25 billion in annualized sales. But with capex bets ballooning and memory prices soaring, the big question is whether demand will keep pace, or if overbuild risk starts to bite.

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