CPAC No-Show Exposes MAGA Rifts

Can Trump wage a war with Iran, soothe Wall Street, and strong‑arm the Senate in the same news cycle? Or does one move to steady prices or rules crack his own coalition?

What We Cover

• CPAC without Trump: the vacuum that let Erik Prince, Ric Grenell, Matt Gaetz, and Joe Kent air real divisions over invasion vs. restraint.
• A movement split in the numbers: 69% GOP approval overall, but a MAGA generational gap on casualties and “trust the plan” confidence.
• Oil whiplash in one afternoon: a five‑day strike pause that knocked Brent from above $114 to ~$99.94 and sent the VIX sliding—then snapping back.
• The Hormuz squeeze: 15% of global oil choked off while Iran’s daily revenue runs “nearly twice” prewar—sanctions logic flipped on its head.
• Senate hardball: “TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER” to jam the SAVE America Act as DHS hits day 40—Thune, Collins, Tillis, and Murkowski push back.

The Headlines

Skipping CPAC for the first time in about a decade, Trump watched rifts surface in plain view: Prince warning of “burning American warships,” Grenell promising Iran “won’t be a threat” in months, Gaetz saying a ground fight makes America “poorer and less safe,” and The Washington Post noting MAGA backlash even froze a key endorsement. Polling is a tale of two bases—Pew’s 69% GOP approval and NBC’s roughly 90% within self‑identified MAGA on strikes—masking a Politico‑flagged generational split that could hobble turnout and endorsements. Markets jolted when Trump delayed energy‑target strikes for five days: Brent slid to ~$99.94, WTI dropped over 10% to $88.13, the S&P 500 popped 1.1% as the VIX fell from ~30 to just over 20—only to rebound on fresh risk. Meanwhile, The Economist’s Hormuz choke and The New Yorker’s escalatory menu (ground invasion or energy hits) box in leverage; in the Senate, a filibuster kill‑shot for the SAVE America Act meets open GOP resistance as the DHS shutdown drags on.

People & Sources

Voices and figures include Donald Trump, Erik Prince, Ric Grenell, Matt Gaetz, Joe Kent, and GOP Senators John Thune, Susan Collins, Thom Tillis, and Lisa Murkowski. Reporting and context come via The Washington Post, Politico, The Economist, The Guardian, The New Yorker, Pew Research, NBC, and Fox’s The Five.

Keep Watching

• Does Brent hold below $95 for three straight sessions by April 5—signal or head‑fake?
• Does Trump reemerge on the trail to enforce message discipline, or keep distance and let the rift widen?
• Any Senate filibuster carve‑out or reconciliation gambit for the SAVE America Act as the DHS shutdown clock keeps ticking?

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