Refinery Strikes Send Diesel Soaring

Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has knocked out an estimated 40% of Russia’s refining capacity, sending U.S. diesel prices to a record $5.85 per gallon and forcing Russia to halt diesel exports—about 3% of global supply. As North American refineries scramble to delay maintenance and cover the shortfall, the pressure is shifting from oil wells to refineries, raising food and freight costs worldwide and setting up a high-stakes winter of energy insecurity.

But here’s the catch: Ukraine’s strikes aren’t just choking fuel—they’re exposing gaps in Russian air defenses and forcing tough choices in Moscow. If Russia pulls air defenses from the front to protect refineries, Ukraine could gain more leverage on the battlefield and at sea, with shipping insurance costs in the Black Sea and Baltic poised to spike again. Meanwhile, Ukraine is probing Russia’s satellite infrastructure, hitting space communication hubs near Moscow, which could disrupt Russian drones and missiles. All this unfolds as Zelensky lobbies the UN for tighter oil limits, Trump invites Putin to G20 talks, and brief pauses in strikes give way to renewed salvos on both sides’ infrastructure.

Featuring insights from Fortune, Al Jazeera, BBC, Politico, AP, Defense News, and the UN Human Rights Office.

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