Ballistic Missiles Surge, Intercepts Plummet

Ukraine’s war strategy just pivoted: Kyiv has massively ramped up drone and air strikes inside Russia, targeting oil, gas, and shipping in ways that hit nearly 7,250 times in the first half of 2025 alone. By zeroing in on Russia’s energy revenue and maritime logistics, Ukraine aims to squeeze Moscow’s economy and force costly changes in shipping routes, even as refinery fires and vessel attacks upend the Black Sea and Azov regions.

But here’s the catch—Moscow is firing back with a punishing barrage of ballistic missiles, increasing salvos sevenfold since 2023. Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling: only about 10% of ballistic missiles are stopped, leading to a surge in civilian casualties far from the front lines. Diplomatic channels aren’t bringing relief, either—President Putin shut down proposals to limit long-range attacks and Washington admits there’s “no quick path to a deal,” even as U.S. military aid holds steady.

Inside Ukraine, President Zelensky shook up the military’s top ranks after protests and public splits, betting that new leadership—led by Mykhailo Drapatyi—can modernize the force and keep up the pressure. Reporting from CSIS, Al Jazeera, and Euromaidan Press guides our analysis of where the conflict grinds next.

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