Truce Falters, Oil Terminals Burn

A rare 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire, the first broad pause in fighting since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was supposed to offer respite. Instead, the truce quickly unraveled—Russian strikes hit Dnipropetrovsk within hours, and drone attacks continued unabated. Moscow claimed moral high ground but hedged compliance, blaming “provocations.” The deeper issue: this fleeting truce is less a pivot toward peace than a warning sign that financial and energy pressures are grinding down Russia’s war economy.

But here’s the catch: Ukraine’s recent drone and missile strikes on key Russian oil terminals—Ust-Luga and Primorsk—knocked out capacity and slashed up to 40% of Russia’s oil export revenue. At the same time, the EU finally unlocked a €90 billion loan and passed a new sanctions round, tightening the screws on Russia’s shadow oil trade and cutting off sanction evasion routes. Meanwhile, drone warfare is reshaping the battlefield: Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles now account for the vast majority of front-line casualties, hitting hundreds of Russian supply depots, oil sites, and command posts. Yet experts warn drones alone won’t decide the war—both sides are adapting fast, with Russia launching record air assaults and pushing hard toward key Donbas strongholds.

Featuring reporting from Reuters, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, and frontline insights from ISW and IISS.

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