Michigan Upset Tightens Senate Math

Virginia’s primaries may have flown under the radar, but their impact is anything but quiet. With control of the House balancing on a knife’s edge—218 to 212 with a handful of vacancies—key races in VA-01, VA-02, and VA-07 could tip the scales. Democrats are eyeing pickups after a redistricting shake-up, but Republicans see a prime chance for a flip. VA-02 in particular has mirrored national House outcomes for over a decade, making it a bellwether for November’s high-stakes battle.

But here’s the catch: While Democrats made gains in Virginia, their Senate path just got harder. In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly edged Rep. Haley Stevens, setting up a high-risk faceoff against GOP favorite Mike Rogers. El-Sayed’s left-leaning record gives Republicans easy attack lines and could alienate moderate swing voters—raising the stakes for a party that needs to net four seats to flip the Senate. Meanwhile, weak jobs numbers undercut the GOP’s economic pitch, but Republicans are betting big on a $400 million war chest from Trump’s camp—if, and only if, that cash lands before October.

Based on reporting from CNN, Pew Research Center, Politico, The Guardian, and WENY News.

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