Democrats are gaining polls,

The Supreme Court just handed Alabama—and potentially much of the South—a new congressional map that erases a Black Democratic seat, strengthening the GOP’s grip on the House. This isn’t just an Alabama story: after the court’s April Voting Rights Act ruling, up to six southern Black Democratic seats could be wiped out. Legal ping-pong and special elections are likely, fueling confusion and forcing campaigns to scramble with tight filing deadlines and shifting rules. Republicans pick up an edge, but national winds favor Democrats: Trump’s approval is below 40%, inflation’s back up, and the House margin is razor-thin.

But here’s the catch: what the courts giveth, a wave election could take away. Democrats are polling up double digits on the generic ballot, and in the Senate, longshot states are suddenly in play. Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio—an 11-point Trump state—and Texas is a real toss-up. Yet it’s not smooth sailing: Democrats might have to win in multiple deep-red states, and Maine’s Senate race is a wild card after new vulnerabilities surfaced. Meanwhile, House battlegrounds like New Jersey are getting personal, with absentee incumbents facing off against authentic challengers in races where a handful of seats could flip control—and the entire legislative agenda.

Based on reporting and polling from Fox News, CNN, Al Jazeera, Scripps News, The Hill, and Le Monde.

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