Inflation Trust Swings To Democrats

Six months out, Democrats are surging in national polls and forecasting models—Data for Progress shows an 8-point lead on the generic ballot, and The Economist gives them a 9-in-10 shot at winning the House by a hefty margin. But there’s a catch: Republican-led redistricting could shift as many as 14 House seats rightward, setting up a high-stakes test of whether a blue wave can overpower a structural GOP advantage baked into the new maps.

Election infrastructure is showing serious strain. Federal funding for election security has dropped sharply, leaving states with just a fraction of what’s needed to upgrade voting machines and shore up defenses against interference. Meanwhile, legal and political fights are heating up: a new $1.8 billion DOJ fund, potentially available to Trump allies and even Jan. 6 defendants, faces court challenges and could spark unprecedented federal–state showdowns at polling places. Local prosecutors are threatening to push back, and some fear these confrontations could suppress turnout or, alternatively, energize GOP voters with claims of overreach.

Featuring insights and numbers from Data for Progress, The Economist, CNN, Fox News, States United Democracy Center, Campaign Legal Center, and South Carolina Public Radio.

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